Data Analysis and Visualization
Of course, it is common knowledge that when greenhouse gases emissions proliferates, so does temperature, thus causing global warming. However, what other environmental aspects are impacted alongside temperatures?
CMIP6 Dataset: 12 total models analyzed (2015 ~ 2100)Scenario #1: SSP245
The SSP245 situation represents a medium pathway for future greenhouse gases emissions, including:
- Intermediate socioeconomic development
- Moderate climate protection measures
- Radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 by 2100
This serves as our baseline: a reasonable outcome with our current consumption and development rates.
*Hover over each state to see the exact temperature values TAS data averaged by all models and years
Scenario #2: SSP585
The SSP585 situation represents a high pathway for future greenhouse gases emissions, including:
- Heavily reliant on fossil fuels
- Severe global warming
- Radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 by 2100
This serves as the worst case scenario: a terrible outcome that should not happen.
*Hover over each state to see the exact temperature values TAS data averaged by all models and years
Scenario Comparison
We then compare the two scenarios to visualize their differences (TAS of SSP585 minus TAS of SSP245) to see how much dire the worst case scenario is compared to the baseline. We noticed that
- Overall average increase of 1.86°C (an increase of 1.5°C results in severe climate change impacts)
- States in the middle experienced higher temperature incease on average
Environmental Consequences
Let's now explore the notable climate impacts caused by increasing temperatures, in which we would specifically focus on the following variables:
- Near surface temperature (°C)
- Precipitation (mm)
- Snowfall (mm)
- Soil moisture content (mm)
Global Thresholds of Severe Changes:
- Temperature → 1.5 °C
- Precipitation → 24 ~ 48 mm
- Snowfall → -8 ~ -12 mm
- Soil Moisture → -1.5 ~ -3 mm
Northern States
If we take a closer look, we can notice a pronounced pattern exhibited by the northern states, in which when temperature rises:
- Precipitation increases steadily
- Snowfall decreases drastically
- Soil moisture drops slightly or remains relatively similar
Northern States: Trendlines
These trends become apparant when graphed, showing how temperature, precipitation, snow fall, and
soil moisture changes as the years go by.
Effects:
- Less snowpack → water supply declines
- Increased precipitation → flood risk rises
- Warmer winters → winter tourism decreases
- More pests → forests & crops harmed
- Slight soil drying → erosion becomes more severe
Southern States
For the southern states, we notice the opposite pattern when temperature rises:
- Precipitation drops steadily in an oscillitating manner (sometimes declines more, sometimes declines less)
- Snowfall still decreases drastically
- Soil moisture decreases slightly
Southern States: Trendlines
These trends become apparant when graphed, showing how temperature, precipitation, snow fall, and
soil moisture changes as the years go by.
Effects:
- Hotter & drier climate → droughts become frequent
- Reduced soil moisture → agriculture productivity drops
- Higher evaporation → rivers & aquifers shrink
- Dry vegetation → wildfire danger increases
- Extreme heat → health risks & energy use rise
Northeastern States
Another interesting pattern we discovered is the ones shown by northeastern states, in which when temperature rises:
- Precipitation increases steadily
- Snowfall still decreases drastically
- Soil moisture increases slightly
Northeastern States: Trendlines
These trends become apparant when graphed, showing how temperature, precipitation, snow fall, and
soil moisture changes as the years go by.
Effects:
- Stronger storms → coastal & inland flooding increases
- Less snowfall → winter economies weaken
- Heavy rainfall → infrastructure fails more often
- Milder winters → disease-carrying insects spread
- Wetter soils → erosion & runoff pollution worsen
Exception States
However, there are a few states that do not possess any of the aforementioned patterns, or simplay does not have matching patterns with those of the previous three regions in terms of their geographical locations. Keep scrolling to find out more.
New Mexico
The interesting thing about New Mexico is that although it is a southern state, it possesses the trends of northern states in which when temperature rises:
- Precipitation increases steadily
- Snowfall decreases drastically
- Soil moisture drops slightly or remains relatively similar
- Heavy rains → flash flooding and deadly floods (e.g. July 2025 floods in Ruidoso)
- Floods after wildfires → washed away homes & roads due to burn-scar vulnerability
- Increased flood damage costs → rising number of costly weather disasters tied to drought/flood cycles in Southwest
South Carolina
Similar to New Mexico, South Carolina also exhibits an unique trend despite being in the southern part of the United States. In this case, when temerature rises:
- Precipitation steadily increases with oscillating behavior
- Snowfall remains relatively unchanged, oscillating around the mean of -0.2 mm
- Soil moisture remains relatively unchanged, oscillating around the mean of 0.2 mm
- Rising sea level + land subsidence → coastal flooding and shoreline erosion
- Hundreds of major disasters (1980–2024) → billions in damage; frequent hurricanes & storms
- Coastal cities (e.g. Charleston) → many buildings now at high risk of flood or storm-surge damage
- Wetland & salt-marsh loss → harmful effects on fisheries, water quality, and natural flood protection
- Historic “100-year” floods & heavy rainfall events → becoming more frequent and intense
Florida
As one of the most popular southern states, Florida yields some shocking results. Unlike its southern peers, when temperature rises in Florida:
- Snowfall remains relatively unchanged, oscillating around the mean of -0.11 mm
- Soil moisture remains relatively unchanged, oscillating around the mean of -0.09 mm
- Frequent disasters → Florida has had 94 confirmed climate/wether disaster events (1980–2024) with > US$1 billion each
- Storms, hurricanes & floods → severe storms, tropical cyclones notably contributing to disasters in the state
- Heat & environmental stress → combination of heat, drought, fire, flooding, and hurricanes threatens agriculture, tourism and human health in Florida
Georgia
Interestingly, Georgia exhibits an unique trend of oscillitating values for all three variables, in which:
- Precipitation and soil moisture oscillitate between positive (increase) and negative (decrease) values
- Snowfall slightly decreases but with oscillating behavior as well
- Sea level rise & coastal flooding risk → coastal areas vulnerable to inundation and storm surge under warming seas
- More severe floods & drought swings → warmer climate linked to increased flooding and drought threats across the state
- Agriculture & water supply stress → Rivers, reservoirs, and water supply (e.g. for major metro areas) face decline due to changing rainfall + evaporation patterns
- Health & heat-stress risks → rising temperatures raise risks of heat illnesses and strain energy/water systems
Rhode Island
Although Rhode Island is located in the northeastern region of the United States, it does not portray the phenomenon of increasing precipitation and soil moisture like its neighboring states. Instead, Rhode Island has the following behaviors:
- Precipitation slightly increases with oscillating behavior
- Snowfall slightly decreases but with oscillating behavior as well
- Soil moisture decreases, oscillating around the mean of -4.7 mm
- Sea level rise → coastal flooding and more frequent high-tide (“nuisance”) floods
- Rising sea & land subsidence → shoreline erosion and loss of beaches & wetlands
- Heavier precipitation & extreme rainfall events → urban and inland flooding; overwhelmed storm-drain and sewer systems
- Warmer average temperatures & heat waves → increased heat-stress risks, more days over 90 °F
- Ocean warming & acidification → threats to fisheries and shellfish habitats (e.g. salt-marsh, oyster beds), declining marine biodiversity
Delaware
Another exception in the northeastern region is Delaware. Even though it's soil moisture rises, its precipitation and snowfall behaved differently:
- Precipitation remains relatively unchanged, oscillating around the mean of -15.07 mm
- Snowfall experienced a slightly declining yet oscillating trend
- Warming & heavier rainstorms → more frequent heavy rainfall events, increasing flood risk and coastal inundation
- Sea-level rise → low-lying lands, wetlands and aquifers threatened by rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion
- Damage to ecosystems & agriculture → shifting climate threatens wetlands, farms, and water-quality in inland and coastal zones
Tennessee
Since Tennessee is pretty much in the middle section of the United States, it possesses traits from all three northern, southern, and northeastern regions.
-
Northern behavior
- Increasing precipitation: steadily oscillates in an increasing trend from negative to eventually positive values
-
Southern behavior
- Decreasing precipitation: the relative average precipitation is still negative
- Northeastern behavior
- Increasing soil moisture: slightly increasing trend, oscillating around the mean of 0.51 mm
- Increased heavy rainfall & floods → recent storms (e.g. early-April 2025) intensified by climate change caused deadly floods in Tennessee and neighboring states
- More frequent disasters → state recently impacted by multiple billion-dollar disasters tied to extreme weather, drought, rainfall variability
- Water supply stress despite rainfall rise → higher evaporation offsets rainfall gains, reducing streamflow and groundwater recharge
- Soil drying & ecosystem stress → altered soil moisture and shifting rainfall patterns affecting agriculture and natural ecosystems
Key Takeaways
- All states will pass the 1.5°C threshold by 2076 if SSP585 persists
- While Northern and Northeastern states passed the precipitation threshold of +24 mm/yr, Southern states did the opposite and went beyond -24 mm/yr
- All states passed through the snowfall threshold of -8 mm/yr, with the sole exceptions of South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia
- All three regions did not pass the soil moisture threshold of -1.5 mm/yr
Filter the data on your own!
Try testing and anlalyzing how different models, years, and simulated situatons can have different impacts.